SMO Insights Wed 2026-09-30: Phase -3 Bearish Advanced -95.4% (-0.2%)

Brian Degracia

01 Oct 2026 • 4 min read

Sector Strength Terrain Clock showing new Phase -3 Bearish Advanced. Eighteen bearish industries are in Bearish Advanced and seven are in Bearish Maturing. Two bullish industries are on the verge of flipping to bearish and two bearish industries are close to switching to bullish. Basic Materials, Energy, Financial, Healthcare, and Utilities are uniformly weak while Consumer Cyclical and Industrial are almost uniformly weak.

See About for more detailed background to this analysis.

The Market Strength Score is -95.4% and this is the fifth day of a new Bearish phase. The previous bullish phase was 2 days and the preceding bearish phase was 8 days. The current MSS now matches the 52-week low of -95.4% on 2026-03-20.

Goal: objectively determine what to do and when in the U.S. stock market
How: top-down, inside-out, and bottom-up market, sector, industry, sub-industry, and stock analysis; three unique tools 1) Market Strength Score, 2) Sector Strength Terrain Clock, 3) Strength Spectrums
Example actions: long vs. short, trend follow vs. mean revert, aggressive vs. conservative, days vs. weeks expected holding period
Basis: where are there strength pockets and how much may remain

Tools:
1. Sector Strength Terrain Clock, a single-day snapshot plotting sector and industry strength and the current Market Strength Score within the Six-Phase framework
2. Market Strength Score Gauge, a one year comparison of the Market Strength Score and the S&P 500
3. Industry Strength Scores by Sector showing comparative alphabetical views of sector and industry strength
4. Industry Strength Scores Ranked which groups the strongest and weakest industries to identify pockets of least and most extended setups
5. Sector and Sector ETFs High-Level Reports showing Strength Spectrums for the 11 sectors and the 11 sector ETFs
6. Sector Mid-Level and Detailed Reports showing Strength Scores and Strength Spectrums for sectors, industries, and sub-industries
7. Ranked Reports clearly showing where is the strength and weakness at the sector ETF, industry, and sub-industry levels

SMO Market Strength Score Gauge

Provides 12 month context against prior scores and the S&P 500 for today's MSS.

The one year MSS extremes are 75.2% on 2026-04-21 and -95.4% on 2026-03-20.

SMO Industry Strength Scores by Sector

The sectors are listed alphabetically and below each are their component industries listed alphabetically. The Six Phase thresholds are labeled along with the current Market Strength Score. This reveals sector strength breadth and depth.

SMO Industry Strength Scores Ranked

The industries are listed based on strength score, first strengthening industries then weakening industries. The Six Phase thresholds are labeled along with the current Market Strength Score. This reveals the least and most extended industries.

SMO Sector and Sector ETFs High-Level Reports

The Sector Report lists the strength spectrum readings for the 11 sectors. The Sector ETFs Report lists the strength spectrum readings for the 11 sector ETFs. Each report also shows the combined strength spectrum for all stocks in this universe and for the major indexes S&P 500 and NDX.

This provides a broad overview of market strength and weakness pockets.

September 30 note: all-stock universe is 6Weak and the S&P500 weakened to 7Weaker, while the Nasdaq 100 strengthened and stayed at 5Average.

Weakness abounds. Upper chart full sectors ranges from 8Very Weak (Real Estate and Utilities) to 5Average (Technology which weakened but stayed 5Average). Former leader Energy has dropped to 6Weak. Lower chart ETFs ranges from 8Very Weak XLP Consumer Staples, XLRE Real Estate, and XLU Utilities to 4Strong XLK Technology, though XLK weakened during the week.

SMO Sector Mid-Level and Detailed Reports

The following Sector Mid-Level and Detailed Reports provide more refined market strength pockets, potential relative lasting power for these strengths, and a logical foundation for potential stock-/option-specific actions.

The Sector Mid-Level Report below lists the strength spectrum readings for all stocks and the major indexes S&P 500 and NDX, then lists the same for key sectors and sector ETFs.

September 30 note: SOX leads at 2Very Strong. 8Very Weak noted in Automotive and Gaming (Consumer Cyclicals sector), Real Estate, and Utilities. Basic Materials, Energy, Financials, Healthcare, and Industrials also showed broad weakness.

The Sector Detailed Report below expands upon the Sector Mid-Level Report by overlaying the Sector Strength Terrain Clock Industry Strength Scores and adding industry and sub-industry detail.

September 30 note: newly bearish Market Strength Score conveys negative environment. Strength shown in Semiconductors. Basic Materials, Energy, Financial, and Technology excluding Semis showing weakness. Utilities showed signs of strength after a long weak period but has not completely turned the corner to strengthening.

SMO Ranked Reports

The following provide strongest to weakest ranked views of the 11 Sector ETFs, 46 industries, and 149 sub-industries.

Sector ETFs Ranked Report

Industry Ranked Report

Sub-Industry Ranked Report, Strongest and Weakest Only

The sub-industries report shows only those ranked 3Stronger, 2Very Strong, 1Strongest, 7Weaker, 8Very Weak, and 9Weakest.

For educational purposes only. These are not stock or investment recommendations. See this disclaimer.