SMO Full Report Tue 2025-07-29 (Phase -1, Risk Off Early)

Brian Degracia

29 Jul 2025 • 3 min read

The Market 6-Phase gauge is the proprietary Stock Market Organizer method to objectively measure where the market currently is in its ever-changing bull/bear cycle. Different market cycle phases = different risks. Act accordingly.

For educational purposes only. These are NOT stock or investment recommendations.

Market Summary

The Market 6-Phase Gauge + the following Market Strength Score = unique current market environment depiction.

The Market Strength Score changed to negative = Risk Off Tuesday, July 29, 2025.

Sectors Summary

This Market and Sector Strength Dashboard converts to actionable information the raw strengthening, weakening, and current strength levels shown in the spectrum graph below. Note the -35% Market Strength Score translates into a Phase -1 Bearish Early environment.

Referred to as Spectrum format (these are presented as the spectrum of possibilities from 9Weakest to 1Strongest), here are the raw strength readings for each sector with their change for the just-completed week. This week, only XLE/Energy strengthened.

Select Industries Summary

Selected key industries are presented below in Dashboard and Spectrum format similar to the ETFs/Sectors summary above. The underlying information here is the full component stock populations, not just the 500 ETF stocks. Thus, it provides a broader view of underlying strength and weakness and should be used to enhance the ETF Sector insights.

Industry-level dashboard - Real Estate in the Sector section above is rated -1, same as it is in this table. The user can be comfortable this rating is "solid." Similarly, Energy is +1 in both tables. However, while the ETF Sector Financials is 0/Neutral, this industry table shows Banking at -3, Financial Services at 0, and Insurance at -2. The user should note and appropriately account for these differences.

Stocks Summary

Below are the stocks rated 1Strongest (for long possibilities), 5Average (for non-directional option possibilities), and 9Weakest (for short possibilities).

1Strongest Stocks

Potentially stack strength with these candidates.

5Average Stocks

Potentially deploy neutral options strategies with these candidates.

9Weakest Stocks

Potentially stack weakness with these candidates.

Underlying Key Concepts

🔹 Signal duration depends solely on objective market action measurement.
🔹 It conveys what “is” – not “why,” or for how long.
🔹 It is an objective, repeatable, and reliable tool to

enforce discipline,
prevent unforced errors,
eliminate emotion and confusion, and
make sound decisions in all market environments.

This enforced discipline ensures new positions are opened only in the direction of market strengthening or weakening.

If strengthening, only new long positions can be opened.

If weakening, only new short positions can be opened.

Why? Trend respect.

Market weakening does not mean “exit existing long positions.” Only potential new positions are impacted by the critical question of “what is the market doing now?”

Existing open positions are closed when their behavior negates the entry thesis.