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SMO Full Report Fri 2025-07-11 (Phase +3, Risk On Late)

Brian Degracia

• 2 min read
SMO Full Report Fri 2025-07-11 (Phase +3, Risk On Late)
The market cycles between bullish (upward) and bearish (downward) phases. This gauge tracks these. Bullish phases go from +0.1% to +100% (early to late), bearish from -0.1% to -100% (early to late). The market does NOT cleanly cycle between extremes. This gauge objectively identifies the current market phase. Why do you care? Because different market cycle phases = different risks. Act accordingly.
For educational purposes only. These are NOT stock or investment recommendations.

Market Summary

The market has been Risk On since Friday, June 27. Note that in early April the Market Strength Score fell to -100%, highlighting an extremely volatile period and marking a (for now) short term bottom. This gauge, like others, will never be able to provide exact timing of bottoms and tops. However, extremely low readings can materially and on a timely basis highlight attractive long entry points - though to avoid catching falling knives this is a good idea only AFTER the score has turned positive.

Sectors Summary

This dashboard separates sector-level strength and weakness signal from noise.
The dashboard above converts these strength readings into actionable information.

Stocks Summary

Below are the stocks rated 1Strongest (for long possibilities), 5Average (for non-directional option possibilities), and 9Weakest (for short possibilities).

1Strongest Stocks:

Potentially stack strength with these candidates.

5Average Stocks:

Potentially deploy neutral options strategies with these candidates.

9Weakest Stocks:

Potentially stack weakness with these candidates. Note SRE, PCG, and EIX are 9Weakest in a rising market and in a currently +3 Sector. What happens to these if/when the market and sector turn weak?

Underlying Key Concepts

🔹 Signal duration depends solely on objective market action measurement.
🔹 It conveys what “is” – not “why,” or for how long.
🔹 It is an objective, repeatable, and reliable tool to

  • enforce discipline,
  • prevent unforced errors,
  • eliminate emotion and confusion, and
  • make sound decisions in all market environments.

This enforced discipline ensures new positions are opened only in the direction of market strengthening or weakening.

If strengthening, only new long positions can be opened.

If weakening, only new short positions can be opened.

Why? Trend respect.

Market weakening does not mean “exit existing long positions.” Only potential new positions are impacted by the critical question of “what is the market doing now?”

Existing open positions are closed when their behavior negates the entry thesis.

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