The rising tide is no more: what next? (A comparison of rates vs. the market)

Did you know? A 5th grader knows this can't last: for 40 years the market rose as rates fell (logical), but since 3/9/20 the market has risen as rates rose (what?). Which will break - the market, or rates? As a simple outsider, I need the explanation/

Software 2023-08-24: Unchanged at "AVERAGE" strength rating (5th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was DOWN

Previous review of Software on August 17, 2023 is available here. Perhaps surprisingly given the overall market in recent weeks, its own recent weakening, and today's broad weakness in the face of NVDA/Nvidia's stellar earnings report, Computer Software & Services turned in a decent week

Electronics 2023-08-24: Unchanged at "AVERAGE" strength rating (5th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was DOWN

Previous review of Electronics on August 17, 2023 is available here. NVDA/Nvidia crushed its earnings report yesterday after hours. And the market sold off today on the news. Exhibit A of why it is fruitless to anticipate anything in the market. The numbers were far better than expected. And

Metals 2023-08-22: UNCHANGED at "WEAK" strength rating (6th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was DOWN

Here's my previous look at Metals from 8/15/23. For reference, gold is now a little over $1,900/ounce. While it has been rising in recent days, it has generally been moving down from its 5/3/23 $2,052 high but has been rising in

Energy 2023-08-22: Unchanged at "STRONG" strength rating (4th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was DOWN

Here's my review of Energy for the trading week ending 2023-08-15. Then, I wrote the following: One week of weakness has dribbled into two. Over the trading week ending 8/15/23, 48 of these 152 Energy stocks rose while 104 fell. For the previous trading

Materials/Construction incl. Homebuilders 2023-08-22: -1 to "STRONG" strength rating (4th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was UP

Here is my Materials & Construction (Homebuilders) review from August 15, 2023. Here's a quote from that review: There was some underlying weakening, with 4 of the 8 sub-industries weakening by one level each... Last week all 16 Residential Construction (aka Homebuilders) stocks were Strongest. This week,

Financial Services 2023-08-21: -1 to "AVERAGE" strength rating (5th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was also DOWN

Previous review of Financial Services was one week ago 2023-08-14. Is there a point in reviewing an industry on a weekly basis? I say yes. There is always the risk of being too close to the action to see clearly what is happening. But the way this method

Is C/Citigroup a good short candidate (2023-08-21)?

Following up this post about a short sale that ran into issues quickly, I'll flag something that I would consider a more attractive short sale possibility which is NOT a stock recommendation. #notastockrecommendation Banking Analysis on LinkedIn Earlier today I posted a Banking analysis on LinkedIn, which I

A good reason not to go short

This may work out for them but the road to a good outcome became more difficult Friday. I'm not a fan of short selling based on the capped upside and unlimited downside.

Real Estate 2023-08-18: -1 to "WEAK" strength rating (6th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was also DOWN

My previous review of Real Estate was August 4, 2023 and is available here. Along with Banking, Real Estate took it on the chin this week. The industry and all its sub-industries are back to their strength levels of 8 weeks ago, with the exception of Mortgage Investment which

Banking 2023-08-18: -1 to "WEAK" strength rating (6th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was UP

What a terrible week for Banking. Here's my August 4, 2023 review. Things have changed since then. How bad was it? - All sub-industries weakened, with Money Center and Midwest Banks each weakening two levels. - 19 of 20 Banking stocks fell for the week (270 of 283). - 129

Retail 2023-08-18: -1 to "AVERAGE" rating (5th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was UP

Previous review of Retail is available here. With its weakening, this is the first change in strength rating for the Retail industry since 5 weeks ago when it strengthened. In my last review from July 28, 2023 I wrote "If you own AAP/Advance Auto Parts, DG/Dollar General,

Specialty Retail 2023-08-18: -1 to "AVERAGE" strength rating (5th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was UP

Previous review of Specialty Retail is available here. Apparel stores with 22 stocks fell two strength levels to Average (5th strongest of 9 levels), erasing 5 weeks of strengthening. The three leaders ranked Strongest in this sub-industry are ANF/Abercrombie & Fitch, ROST/Ross Stores, and URBN/Urban Outfitters.

Software 2023-08-17: -1 to "AVERAGE" strength rating (5th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was also DOWN

Here is my last look at Software. The three largest sub-industries Application Software, Business Software & Services, and Information Technology Services all are Average (5th strongest of 9 levels). Two reviews ago I highlighted RIOT/Riot Platforms. It has since imploded. It is -42% from its July 13 peak.

Electronics 2023-08-17: -1 to "AVERAGE" strength rating (4th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was also DOWN

Previous review of Electronics is available here. It was a rough week for Electronics, continuing the weakness that started last week. Everybody's favorite AI darling and Magnificent 7 member NVDA/Nvidia has flattened out over the past month, -9% since its 7/18/23 peak. This isn'

Sector Risk Gauge 2023-08-16 (with preceding 8 weeks context)

Did you know? The U.S. stock market has transitioned from strengthening to weakening over the past 8 weeks as graphically shown by the emotion- and confusion-killing Sector Risk Gauge (SRG). Link to download the report: Sector Risk Gauge 2023 08 16 Sector Risk Gauge 2023-08-16.pdf

Metals 2023-08-15: -1 to "WEAK" strength rating (6th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was DOWN

Here's my previous look at Metals from August 8, 2023. This week? Weakening throughout the industry. Gold has weakened for 3 straight weeks and shares with Silver the weakest sub-industry rating at Weaker (7th strongest of 9 levels). One could argue this is setting up for some

Energy 2023-08-15: Unchanged at "STRONG" strength rating (4th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was DOWN

Previous review of Energy is available here. In that review I stated the following: The bottom line is that Energy has been generally strengthening over the past 8 weeks until this last one. As always I make no predictions. I will point out the obvious that a multi-week decline

Materials/Construction incl. Homebuilders 2023-08-15: Unchanged at "STRONGER" strength rating (3rd strongest of 9 levels), previous move was UP

Previous review of homebuilders is here. The industry has been flat at Stronger for the past 8 weeks. There was some underlying weakening, with 4 of the 8 sub-industries weakening by one level each. There was no industry-level strength change, however, because the underlying sub-industry weakening was

Market Conditions Matter

Did you know? 99 of 100 stocks fell during the COVID 19-caused 2020 implosion. How helpful were those style boxes during this period? 19 of 20 stocks rose as the S&P500 then more than doubled to its 1/3/22 peak. Did charting and technical analysis wizardry

Financial Services 2023-08-14: -1 to "Strong" strength rating (4th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was up

Previous Financial Services review from 2 weeks ago is here. Recession or no? Hard or soft landing? Some are arguing "this time is different" (when looking at inverted yield curves and other data which historically have signaled oncoming recession). This industry should reflect the bite of higher interest

Not a good “against market timing” argument (spoiler alert: the best/worst market days cluster)

Did you know? “Conventional wisdom” isn’t necessarily wisdom. “If an investor were to simply miss the 10 best days in the market, they would have shed over 50% of their end portfolio value.” The above quote is from a Visual Capitalist article yesterday (search for "Timing the Market:

Metals 2023-08-08: -1 to "Average" strength rating (5th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was up

Here's my previous look at Metals from July 25, 2023. Gold has fallen over the past two weeks from Strong to Weak, the 6th strongest of 9 levels. It is now back to its strength level from 8 weeks ago. NEM/Newmont Gold, the most well-known of

Energy 2023-08-08: -1 to "Strong" strength rating (4th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was up

Previous review of Energy is available here. The bottom line is that Energy has been generally strengthening over the past 8 weeks until this last one. As always I make no predictions. I will point out the obvious that a multi-week decline begins with one down week. I personally

Materials/Construction incl. Homebuilders 2023-08-08: Unchanged at "Stronger" strength rating (3rd strongest of 9 levels), previous move was up

Previous review of homebuilders is here. The industry has been unchanged at Stronger for the past 8 weeks. General Contractors has also been rated Strongest for 8 straight weeks. The Residential Construction, or Homebuilders, sub-industry has been rated Strongest (the highest strength level) for 7 straight weeks, after rising