Market Regime Summary Wed 2026-05-06

Day-over-day shift vs 5/5

Regime broke cleanly back to risk-on. WTI collapsed 102.27 → $95.91 (−6.22%) on the Axios report of an imminent US/Iran agreement; Trump paused his Hormuz push. SPX 7,259.22 → 7,365.12 (+1.46%) — second consecutive ATH; HYG 79.92 → 80.16 reclaiming 50MA (first re-arm trigger met after 2 days under). 10-yr 4.43% → ~4.38% as yields followed oil down. Breadth ~57 → ~63 — second re-arm trigger met. VIX flat at 17.39 but VVIX 95.26 → 93.70 (−1.64%) continues to drain. Term structure steepened −1.28 → −1.37 — the only contradiction: back-month says the tail isn't fully gone. Net: step up to 0.6%/3-spread, re-arm C-1-1 and C-9-1 (top-quintile RS), keep C-1-5 paused one more day for yield confirmation. The catalyst that broke the regime four sessions ago is reversing in real time. Two of three triggers green; 10-yr < 4.40% at the line. NFP Friday is
now an upside-skew gate — benign payrolls clears the full re-arm; hot data could retrace today's gains.