Market Regime Summary Wed 2026-04-22
For educational purposes only. These are NOT stock or investment recommendations. See this disclaimer.
Day-over-day shift vs 4/21: Structurally bullish with the vol complex relaxing — VVIX fell back under 100 (101.89 → 98.73), VIX softened (19.50 → 18.92), and term structure deepened CONTANGO (−0.57 → −0.67) as Trump's Iran ceasefire extension fueled a tech-led rally (SPX +1.05%, Nasdaq 100 record high). Credit and trend continue to green-light offense. The two nags: breadth keeps narrowing ($S5FI 58.25 → 57.45 — rally was mega-cap, not broad) and WTI rose again to $93.39 with the Strait of Hormuz blockade still in place. Net: step posture back up from yesterday's 0.6%/3-spread to 0.75%/4-spread, but keep the WTI-driven time-horizon discipline — VVIX relief is real, narrowing breadth is the nag to watch.
