Market Regime Summary Tue 2026-05-05

Day-over-day shift vs 5/4

Full mean-reversion of Monday's Iran shock without the macro damage being fully repaired. SPX 7,200.75 → 7,259.22 (+0.81%) to new ATH; VIX 18.29 → 17.38 (−4.98%), VVIX 98.29 → 95.26 (−3.08%) — vol gave back two-thirds. WTI 106.42 → $102.46 (−3.72%) as the UAE-strike narrative receded. But the structural cracks didn't close: HYG 79.80 → 79.92 still 5¢ below 50MA; 10-yr 4.45% → 4.44% essentially unchanged; VX term steepened −1.10 → −1.28 (back-month sticky). Breadth bounced 53.87 → ~57.5; H/L flipped back RISK-ON. Net: hold 0.5%/2–3-spread, keep C-9-1/C-1-5 paused — one-day relief is not a regime reset. Re-arm requires HYG reclaiming 50MA + S5FI > 60 + yields backing off; we have none of the three. NFP Friday is the next gate; oil tail still alive into European overnight.