Market Regime Summary Thu 2026-04-23

Day-over-day shift vs 4/22

The vol complex stayed calm (VVIX 98.73 → 98.57, VIX 18.92 → 19.31, term structure −0.67 → −0.66) but every other signal got a little worse: SPX pulled back −0.41% off yesterday's record, breadth logged a third straight decline ($S5FI 57.45 → 54.47), and WTI spiked +4.2% to $96.86 as Iran ceasefire talks slipped "in limbo" (Brent back above $101). Credit and trend still green — high-yield actually widened its lead over IG (+0.17pp → +0.43pp) — but the underlying rotation is narrowing into AI/semis/industrials. Net: trim half a notch from 0.75%/4-spread to 0.65%/3-spread with tighter time discipline. Vol is quiet, but the combination of widening oil premium and narrowing breadth is the bigger tell — don't mistake a calm VIX for an all-clear.