Market Regime Summary Fri 2026-05-01

Day-over-day shift vs 4/30

Yesterday's full RISK-ON reversal got followed through but with tempo cooling — this session was digestion, not extension. SPX added +0.29% to 7,230.12 (sixth straight weekly gain), Nasdaq cracked 25,000 (+0.89%). Vol pinned: VIX 16.89 → 16.99, VVIX 93.70 → 95.17. WTI cooled the third straight day, $105.29 → $101.94 (−2.98%) as US-Iran talks progress — the oil tail is finally bleeding off, though Brent still ~$111. Two small offsets: breadth slipped 56.06 → 55.06 and the 10-yr rose to 4.4% (+5bp); H/L moderated from 8.3× to a still-strong 3.51×. Term steepened slightly (−0.93 → −1.17). Net: hold the 0.6%/3-spread posture from 4/30 — not yet to full 1% (yields rising + tech-only leadership is a yellow flag), but no reason to trim with H/L still firmly RISK-ON. The next deterioration vector to track is bonds, not vol or oil — 10-yr above 4.5% would change the regime.