Brian Degracia

Electronics 2023-09-08: -1 to "WEAK" strength rating (6th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was also DOWN

Bottom line: Electronics has generally been weakening for the past 6 weeks. Key stocks: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, AMD, INTC, TXN, AMAT, LRCX, ADI, MU (top 10 by market cap). Context: The industry has been nearly 2/3 positive YTD, dropping to only 30% positive over the past month. One week,

What have you and I been told matters... that doesn't really matter?

Following up this "what am I missing?" post, something in the chart I used in that post caught my eye. Or didn't catch my eye, as the case may be. Chartists - who draw all over price charts to discern actionable insights (nothing wrong there, there

What am I missing? LTBH is just trend following without the risk management

Seems Long Term Buy & Hold has “worked,” because the index charts have risen over time. (While egregiously violating the standard “past performance is not a guarantee of future results” disclaimer. Any controversy about whether this would be a “thing” if the index charts HADN’T risen over time?) So,

Automotive 2023-09-06: Unchanged at "AVERAGE" strength rating (5th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was DOWN

I haven't reviewed Automotive recently. Here's my July 12, 2023 review. Back then, the industry had a Stronger rating, 3rd strongest of 9 levels. This is a smaller industry, with only four sub-industries and 62 stocks that I cover. This is the home of TSLA/Tesla,

Transportation 2023-09-06: Unchanged at "AVERAGE" strength rating (5th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was DOWN

My most recent review of Transportation was July 12, 2023. Like Automotive, it was also rated Stronger (3rd strongest of 9 levels). Today, it is 2 strength levels lower at Average. There are 7 Transportation sub-industries with 83 stocks. The largest sub-industry is Shipping with 34 stocks. This industry also

Energy 2023-09-05: Unchanged at "STRONG" strength rating (4th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was DOWN

Here's my review of Energy for the trading week ending 2023-08-22. A Zerohedge headline today says oil will hit $107 (expected by the end of 2024) due to Saudi Arabia and Russia production cuts. For comparison, in the above linked 8/22/23 report: "Oil prices have

Materials/Construction incl. Homebuilders 2023-09-05: -1 to "STRONG" strength rating (4th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was UP

Here is my Materials & Construction (Homebuilders) review from August 22, 2023, along with my review from August 29. Homebuilders were going strong for a while this year but the last three weeks have shown some wobbling and as noted below it got worse today. Today 9/5/23 was

Real Estate 2023-09-01: +1 to "AVERAGE" strength rating (5th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was DOWN

My previous review of Real Estate was August 18, 2023 and is available here. As noted in my Banking review, this was a light volume week as the last week of summer before the Labor Day holiday. Nonetheless it was a strong week for Real Estate. Hotel REITs remain the

Banking 2023-09-01: +1 to "WEAK" strength rating (6th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was DOWN

All sub-industries strengthened for the trading week ending 9/1/23, a big change from what was described as "... a terrible week for Banking" for the trading week ending 8/18/23. My review of that week is available here. Note that this was the last week of

Materials/Construction incl. Homebuilders 2023-08-29: +1 to "STRONGER" strength rating (3rd strongest of 9 levels), previous move was DOWN

Here is my most recent previous Materials & Construction (Homebuilders) review from August 22, 2023. The week ended 8/22/23 was the first down week in 2 months for the industry but it reversed course this week, retracing the strength level previously lost. BZH/Beazer Homes did have a

PDM/Piedmont Office Realty Trust - a LinkedIn comment lookback back pat

It is easy to get caught up in the daily minutiae and lose sight of the big picture. Let's step back, timewise, and re-visit a LinkedIn post to gauge if there is some value from the analysis provided here. (Spoiler alert: there was in this case.) Bottom line:

The rising tide is no more: what next? (A comparison of rates vs. the market)

Did you know? A 5th grader knows this can't last: for 40 years the market rose as rates fell (logical), but since 3/9/20 the market has risen as rates rose (what?). Which will break - the market, or rates? As a simple outsider, I need the

Software 2023-08-24: Unchanged at "AVERAGE" strength rating (5th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was DOWN

Previous review of Software on August 17, 2023 is available here. Perhaps surprisingly given the overall market in recent weeks, its own recent weakening, and today's broad weakness in the face of NVDA/Nvidia's stellar earnings report, Computer Software & Services turned in a decent week

Electronics 2023-08-24: Unchanged at "AVERAGE" strength rating (5th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was DOWN

Previous review of Electronics on August 17, 2023 is available here. NVDA/Nvidia crushed its earnings report yesterday after hours. And the market sold off today on the news. Exhibit A of why it is fruitless to anticipate anything in the market. The numbers were far better than expected. And

Metals 2023-08-22: UNCHANGED at "WEAK" strength rating (6th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was DOWN

Here's my previous look at Metals from 8/15/23. For reference, gold is now a little over $1,900/ounce. While it has been rising in recent days, it has generally been moving down from its 5/3/23 $2,052 high but has been rising in

Energy 2023-08-22: Unchanged at "STRONG" strength rating (4th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was DOWN

Here's my review of Energy for the trading week ending 2023-08-15. Then, I wrote the following: One week of weakness has dribbled into two. Over the trading week ending 8/15/23, 48 of these 152 Energy stocks rose while 104 fell. For the previous trading week ending

Materials/Construction incl. Homebuilders 2023-08-22: -1 to "STRONG" strength rating (4th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was UP

Here is my Materials & Construction (Homebuilders) review from August 15, 2023. Here's a quote from that review: There was some underlying weakening, with 4 of the 8 sub-industries weakening by one level each... Last week all 16 Residential Construction (aka Homebuilders) stocks were Strongest. This week, 2

Financial Services 2023-08-21: -1 to "AVERAGE" strength rating (5th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was also DOWN

Previous review of Financial Services was one week ago 2023-08-14. Is there a point in reviewing an industry on a weekly basis? I say yes. There is always the risk of being too close to the action to see clearly what is happening. But the way this method is built

Is C/Citigroup a good short candidate (2023-08-21)?

Following up this post about a short sale that ran into issues quickly, I'll flag something that I would consider a more attractive short sale possibility which is NOT a stock recommendation. #notastockrecommendation Banking Analysis on LinkedIn Earlier today I posted a Banking analysis on LinkedIn, which I

A good reason not to go short

This may work out for them but the road to a good outcome became more difficult Friday. I'm not a fan of short selling based on the capped upside and unlimited downside.

Real Estate 2023-08-18: -1 to "WEAK" strength rating (6th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was also DOWN

My previous review of Real Estate was August 4, 2023 and is available here. Along with Banking, Real Estate took it on the chin this week. The industry and all its sub-industries are back to their strength levels of 8 weeks ago, with the exception of Mortgage Investment which is

Banking 2023-08-18: -1 to "WEAK" strength rating (6th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was UP

What a terrible week for Banking. Here's my August 4, 2023 review. Things have changed since then. How bad was it? - All sub-industries weakened, with Money Center and Midwest Banks each weakening two levels. - 19 of 20 Banking stocks fell for the week (270 of 283)

Retail 2023-08-18: -1 to "AVERAGE" rating (5th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was UP

Previous review of Retail is available here. With its weakening, this is the first change in strength rating for the Retail industry since 5 weeks ago when it strengthened. In my last review from July 28, 2023 I wrote "If you own AAP/Advance Auto Parts, DG/Dollar General,

Specialty Retail 2023-08-18: -1 to "AVERAGE" strength rating (5th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was UP

Previous review of Specialty Retail is available here. Apparel stores with 22 stocks fell two strength levels to Average (5th strongest of 9 levels), erasing 5 weeks of strengthening. The three leaders ranked Strongest in this sub-industry are ANF/Abercrombie & Fitch, ROST/Ross Stores, and URBN/Urban Outfitters. Meanwhile,

Software 2023-08-17: -1 to "AVERAGE" strength rating (5th strongest of 9 levels), previous move was also DOWN

Here is my last look at Software. The three largest sub-industries Application Software, Business Software & Services, and Information Technology Services all are Average (5th strongest of 9 levels). Two reviews ago I highlighted RIOT/Riot Platforms. It has since imploded. It is -42% from its July 13 peak. About